November 03, 2008
In trying to guess what will happen tomorrow, I'm turning to Nate Silver, the poll analyst at fivethirtyeight.com. Silver takes every reputable poll and feeds them into a giant statistical model which compensates for each pollster's lean, historical reliability, and other factors. He then runs a number of simulations to estimate likely outcomes of the electoral college based on the weighted polls in each state. With voting just beginning now in New Hampshire, Silver's model shows the most likely outcome is 311 electoral votes for Obama (with 270 needed to win).
Here's his latest:
Overall he gives Obama a 98.1% chance of winning to McCain's 1.9%.
RealClearPolitics predicts 338 electoral votes for Obama, and Pollster.com gives Obama 311 plus some portion of 85 which they consider toss-up. The in-trade prediction market gives Obama a 91.8% chance of winning.
Let's just say that things have changed a lot since my "we're losing" post of mid-September when electoral-vote.com was showing McCain at 270 electoral votes, and the in-trade market had McCain up at 52%.
Tonight, I'm going to be very optimistic (which my wife S keeps warning me not to do) and predict that Obama will take 378 electoral votes on the strength of the enthusiam gap. I'll be out there tomorrow working to bring it home for Gov Chris Gregoire in Washington State. Nate gives Obama a 100% chance to win my state and I'm not worried about his chances here.
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